The electricity demand forecasting of the transport sector in Turkey has been carried out by taking into consideration official estimates, energy infrastructure needs, sector-specific growth and development expectancies. A survey for end user perceptions towards electric vehicles has been conducted, and two alternative ways are employed: (i) top-down approach using genetic algorithms and (ii) bottom-up approach using the Boğaziçi University Energy Modeling System (BUEMS), a technologically detailed linear activity analysis framework. BUEMS is calibrated under various scenarios to evaluate the impact of additional electricity demand on the power generation mix and CO2 emissions.
The main intention of this study is to develop an electricity demand projection for Turkey for the period 2012-2035.
The project covers the five main clusters of electricity demanding sectors that are: i) industrial sector, ii) residential
sector, iii) Service/commercial sector, iv)transport sector, and v) others. Overall electricity demand forecasting
process till end year 2035 has been carried out by taking into considerations of official demographic projections, and
energy efficiency improvement expectations as well as the sector based growth and development expectancies.